[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL INTENSIFY
THIS EVENING SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N08W TO 04N13W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 04N13W TO 04N30W TO 04N46W...THEN RESUMES E OF A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N49W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 03N52W. THE SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
EXTENDS FROM 06N47W TO 01N47W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
01N-05W BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
W CUBA. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
22N98W AND A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 32N88W. CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF
MAINLY W OF 92W WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
E OF 92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. IT BEGINS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THEN BECOMES A
COLD FRONT FROM 21N87W TO 22N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 16N-20N AND W OF 84W.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF
11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OVER
HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
BETWEEN 71W-79W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HISPANIOLA
WILL MOVE E SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N71W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE E AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALSO OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 31N66W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. TO THE E...A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N40W. S OF THIS HIGH...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 23N53W TO 23N33W TO 31N16W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
OVERT THE FAR E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 25N18W TO 29N17W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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