[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 05N20W...TO 04N24W
04N30W AND 04N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 08N
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 36W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST
OF THE U.S.A. SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 27N74W 23N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND WITHIN 450 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 23N80W
19N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES AT A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEHC...KIKT...AND KVOA.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 18N73W CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
HAITI...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
WEST OF A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 63W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...INCLUDING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A SEPARATE AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N66W 17N68W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
AS A CYCLONIC CENTER...BUT CONTINUE AS AN OPEN TROUGH ON TOP OF
PUERTO RICO. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA DURING DAY
ONE. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY WIND FLOW
DURING DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO HONDURAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD JUST
ENOUGH IN ORDER TO CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE TO EASTERLY BY THE END OF DAY
ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALSO WILL BE BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 72 HOURS SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 500 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE STAYING
IN THE SAME AREA DURING DAY ONE...SENDING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
INVERTED TROUGHS ALSO MAY MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
24N25W 22N32W 17N38W AND 08N42W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
32N21W 26N30W 23N40W 23N50W 27N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...AND FROM 29N TO 30N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W 24N30W
20N45W 20N60W AND 30N66W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 29W AND 60W. A SURFACE 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N43W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1031 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR TO 30N56W 26N70W AND 24N76W IN
THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MOROCCO...TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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