[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT DEC 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 03N06E 06N9W 06N14W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N14W 05N25W 05N31W 04N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 42W/43W FROM 03N TO 08N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN
36W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM
60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.A.
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM
90W WESTWARD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATES AT A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 33N91W...TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEHC AND KVOA.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 18N73W CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
HAITI...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
WEST OF 63W RIDGE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 64W AND
80W...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO
24N25W 22N32W 17N38W AND 08N42W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N21W TO 26N30W 23N46W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
23N46W 24N54W 26N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N21W
26N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N
FROM 37W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
32N16W 25N30W 21N40W 24N60W 30N68W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE 32N21W 26N60W COLD FRONT BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. A SURFACE 1031
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N45W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N45W TO 28N60W
25N68W...TO 25N76W IN THE BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF MOROCCO AND
THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 25N18W AND 22N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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