[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...A FEW
HOURS AGO. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N46W 28N60W 28N65W. N OF 30N
BETWEEN 45W AND 48W SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 15 FT.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 30N85W TO 22N91W TO 19N92W.
S OF 20N W OF 95W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...
METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES WWW.METEO.FR...OR
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR
THE AREA THAT IS CALLED IRVING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N/5N BETWEEN 09W AND 25W...AND FROM 1N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.A. INTO
MISSOURI AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE IS ON A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST LINE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 14N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 61W/62W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 61W/62W...ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 76W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN
PUNTA CANA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND HISPANIOLA WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER
EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY
TWO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...AND
BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO
CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
29N60W TO 30N70W AND 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N73W BEYOND 32N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 75 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W
27N41W 24N60W 26N68W...BEYOND 32N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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