[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT
CURRENTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N45W
28N57W 28N65W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT TO 42W.

...FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N84W 26N88W 18N93.5W.
EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST
OF 95W.

...FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES
WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS
THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED IRVING.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ABOUT 42 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N02W 05N16W 04N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 28W/29W FROM 07N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N29W
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
19W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 17W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A....FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA...TO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE IS ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG 94W/95W FROM 18N
TO 23N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO THE
U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N88W 26N87W
30N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 90W WESTWARD.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO
A 16N71W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF A 63W/64W RIDGE FROM 09N TO
20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 23N FROM 60W WESTWARD.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING OBSERVED DURING THE
LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS IN SANTO DOMINGO...BEFORE STOPPING FOR THE
LATEST OBSERVATION. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE
IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. IT WAS RAINING IN SANTIAGO ONE
HOUR AGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND HISPANIOLA WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER
EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY
TWO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...AND
BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO
CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO
25N36W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N36W TO
18N42W AND 08N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 29N50W
27N63W AND 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N73W
BEYOND 32N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N35W 25N50W 23N70W 30N80W...AND FROM 09N TO 23N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N05W TO 28N09W 26N16W 26N25W...TO
20N50W...AND TO 28N74W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT
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