[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN WATERS AND WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA STARTING THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT MORNING
WHEN THE TAIL OF THE FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SW GULF LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS IN THAT REGION WILL RANGE
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 04N08W TO
04N20W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N23W TO
02N38W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S49W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 18W AND
31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WITH BASE OVER NW MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT THIS EVENING MOVES OVER THE NW GULF WATERS FROM LOUISIANA
TO VALLE HERMOSO MEXICO. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN
CONVERGES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT FOG N OF 27N W OF
89W...DEPICTED ALSO BY GOES SATELLITE IFR PRODUCT. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SE LOUISIANA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SOUTHEASTERLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WIND IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE NORTHERLY
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
ITS TAIL MOVES OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SW GULF LATE THU NIGHT. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THU WHEN THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG WITH FAIR
WEATHER. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS...PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...LA MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...S OF HISPANIOLA A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.
OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC TIGHTENS THE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THU...SHIFTING TO THE NW BASIN EARLY FRIDAY. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE S-SW BASIN SLIGHTLY
INCREASING IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLAND...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE AREA THROUGH LATE THU...THUS
SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS IN THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ATLC
SUPPORT A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS...ONE ENTERING THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 30N53W AND CONTINUING TO 30N70W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM FROM 30N50W TO 28N54W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER NE ATLC WATERS FROM 30N24W TO 25N29W. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES.
OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK OVER
THE CENTRAL BASIN THROUGH THU AND WILL START DISSIPATING FRI
WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT STARTS EMERGING FROM THE SE CONUS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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