[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT DISTINCT AT THIS TIME. THE ITCZ IS
ALONG 03N08W 04N17W 01N33W 03N41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 01N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW  AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE  COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N77W TO FLORIDA NEAR
30N83W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W AND 27N86W. A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N86W TO 27N92W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL U.S.A....EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AT
THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N70W TO 30N81W 28N86W 27N91W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL..AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KBQX...
KGVX...KXIH...AND KGUL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT
KBPT...KHHV...KVAF...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KEIR...KMDJ...
KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...KXPY...AND KGAO.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IFR...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS KNBG...IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN CRESTVIEW AND IN DESTIN. ELSEWHERE IN
FLORIDA...LIFR...AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE...IFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND PUNTA GORDA.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF GREAT INAGUA...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE GULF
OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W/65W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 64W/65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 85W.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 16/0000
UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING
DAY ONE AND BRING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO...BRINGING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
OVERALL LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL ENVELOPE THE
AREA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 600 NM
TO 700 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO CROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N27W 17N33W TO
09N42W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N31W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 27N38W AND 24N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 23W
AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19N17W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 08N35W...AND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W
23N26W 16N40W 16N60W 32N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N09W TO
24N19W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
18N30W...TO 21N51W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 21N51W TO A 1017 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N63W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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