[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 42
HOURS. EXPECT A COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 25N90W TO 19N94W. THE
FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO
THE WEST OF 95W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT DISTINCT AT THIS TIME. THE ITCZ IS
ALONG 03N21W 02N25W 03N31W 04N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
6N20W 03N20W 01N22W ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 13W AND 45W...AND FROM 11N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 45W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...TO THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST NEAR
29N83W...TO 28N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 28N86W TO 28N92W...AND INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 29N
TO 30N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL U.S.A....EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA...THROUGH
MISSOURI INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 31N70W 31N79W 29N84W 28N90W...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL..AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KXIH...KGLS...KMIS...KBVE...K1B7...KAXO...AND KGAO. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN GENERAL IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA.

IFR CONDITIONS AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...
KBQX...KHHV...KXPY...KVAF...KEMK...AND KGBK. MVFR AT
KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...KEIR...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IFR...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN BEAUMONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LIFR IN PERRY AND BROOKSVILLE AND PUNTA
GORDA IN FLORIDA.

...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR THE ACKLINS AND CROOKED ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
64W/65W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 64W/65W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N TO 23N FROM 65W WESTWARD.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA
CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING
DAY ONE AND BRING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO...BRINGING
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
OVERALL LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL ENVELOPE THE
AREA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 600 NM
TO 700 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO CROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 22N31W 16N36W AND
TO 06N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N21W TO 28N33W 25N40W AND
24N46W. CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 27N38W AND 24N47W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 22N28W 15N41W 15N60W
32N60W...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 25N18W TO 11N38W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 28N09W TO
22N16W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N31W...TO 19N45W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 19N45W TO A 1016 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N58W...TO GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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