[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 1N AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N18W 1N30W 2N46W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-39W AND FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT IN THE NW ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
AT 15/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY
INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG
27N88W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N TO THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM S
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
GIVING THE REST OF THE BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT N TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WED MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THU
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CUBA TO
OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
VENEZUELA OVER THE E CARIBBEAN JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF
CUBA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S TO E PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-
19N BETWEEN 72W-79W INCLUDING SW HAITI...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF E CUBA IS GIVING SW HAITI SCATTERED
SHOWERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING E OVER THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND WED. THIS
WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH WED AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MID
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 15/2100 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W TO 30N79W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC IS ANCHORED NEAR 26N63W WITH A CUT OFF THE UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST N OF E CUBA NEAR 22N75W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N60W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W TO 26N30W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 19N43W TO 18N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N34W ALONG 26N41W TO
24N53W. W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ALONG
ROUGHLY 30N TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA EARLY WED
LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH PRES
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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