[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
04N09W TO 03N11W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N11W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A VIGOROUS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
OF THE U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE
CENTRAL U.S...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N87W
THEN WESTWARD TO 25N93W AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-88W.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF AS GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THE CURRENTLY
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WITH SE RETURN FLOW REMAINING AT MODERATE
LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION NEAR 21N75W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 73W-79W IN THE
FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT W OF 77W WITHIN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW FAIR WEATHER AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS E OF 77W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING EARLY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC. THE STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 21N75W THAT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF THE ISLAND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
73W-79W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE
LIFTING NE BY WEDNESDAY. UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT AND RESULT IN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. TO THE SOUTHEAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING MOSTLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 27N62W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD TROUGHING PRIMARILY E OF 55W
SUPPORTS A STORM FORCE LOW CENTERED NEAR 44N35W. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N26W TO 30N27W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
SW TO 20N40W TO 19N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 33W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 33W. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OF ENERGY IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N50W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 32N35W TO 25N51W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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