[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO
05N05W TO 04N10W THEN RESUMES NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N15W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 02N26W TO 04N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN
17W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N
BETWEEN 31W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WITH AXIS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE TO OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW
AND TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO 25N91W TO 21N97W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN
MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 92W.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IS
NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF ANCHORED BY A 1011 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N92W. THE WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS E-SE RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION NEAR 19N77W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 74W-82W IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT E OF A LINE FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO PANAMA AND FRESH TRADES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL
OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION NEAR 19N77W THAT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 74W-82W. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE LIFTING NE BY
WEDNESDAY. UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT AND RESULT IN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF 21N75W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W SW TO 21N40W
TO 20N48W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 40W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY W OF
40W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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