[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N22W 3N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 14W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 14/2100 UTC OVER
THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 26N87W TO 23N92W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N95W THEN DISSIPATES TO 19N95W.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
75/90 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHARP NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
SE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO
OVER THE FAR E GULF. A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH IS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 28N93W WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING THE W GULF. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO STATIONARY
TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF EARLY WED
REACHING FROM S LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE
GULF OF MEXICO CLIPS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 21N65W
COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. NESTLED BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES
IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E COAST OF CUBA AND EXTENDING AN
UPPER TROUGH S TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N81W OVER CUBA TO NEAR 21N76W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA IS GIVING SW HAITI SCATTERED SHOWERS
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
NE OVER THE ISLAND WED. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH
WED AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 29N70W CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N23W ALONG 24N33W TO 20N47W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
TO 21N59W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 34W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 23N22W AND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR
17N32W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NE FL/GA COASTS.
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NE FL/GA COASTS TONIGHT...THEN STALL
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS WARM FRONT WED
AND WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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