[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO NEAR 07N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 05N34W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
00N-06N BETWEEN 17W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N89W TO A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 21N95W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1012 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 28N95W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 89W WHILE A MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL DRIFT NE FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE CUBA NEAR
20N77W AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-82W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT S
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SE CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT COULD REACH PORTIONS OF HAITI.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT S
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS NE
FLORIDA REACHING THE W ATLANTIC TO NEAR 30N63W. TO THE SE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE CUBA NEAR 20N77W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS BETWEEN 74W-77W.
TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
24N71W TO 21N59W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT
POINT TO 22N39W TO 31N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N31W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE W ATLANTIC. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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