[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N10W TO
04N30W TO 05N39W THEN RESUMES FROM 04N43W TO 01N49W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N38W TO 01N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA THEN ACROSS EASTERN
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W TO ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF ANALYZED FROM
27N85W TO 23N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE IT HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR
DAYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT 1019 MB IS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR 29N87W WITH BROAD RIDGING DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OR SHIFT SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH AND RIDGING BUILD SOUTHWARD AS WITH WANING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH 1-3 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF
AS A RESULT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N69W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TO WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W. MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS PREVAIL E OF 80W...WHILE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS W OF
80W AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE
TROPICAL NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N85.5W TO 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 19N87W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER. THIS FRONT IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
WILL LIKELY FINALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TSTMS ACTIVITY
HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN EASTERN JAMAICA AND SW HAITI AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES AND 7-9 FT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 09.5N74.5W AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THESES
CONDITIONS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...
EXCEPT MODERATE TRADES WILL TAKE OVER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS
WELL ONCE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DISSIPATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. A MAINLY DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND
APPROACHING THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST. A WEAKENING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTHEAST EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 29N76W TO JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
NEAR 21N70W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 26N74W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 30N69W TO 27N78W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 23N/24N W OF
62W. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N71W
BY SUNRISE THU LIFTING NE OF THE AREA TO NEAR 33N59W BY SUNRISE
FRI TAKING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE LOW THROUGH 27N65W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS BY SUNRISE FRI WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN AREAS OF
CONVECTION.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST REACHING FROM 32N42W
TO 28.5N50W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH NW SWELLS OF
8-11 FT PROPAGATING IN BEHIND IT. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 27N52W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH IN THE DEEP TROPICS AS IS DESCRIBED IN
THE CONVECTION SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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