[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO 06N15W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N15W TO
03N30W TO 04N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N38W TO
01N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-
07N BETWEEN 23W-30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 01N-
08N BETWEEN 16W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 31N85W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 26N W OF 90W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF OF
26N WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO
SURFACE SE RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N85W TO
NEAR COZUMEL MEXICO AT 20N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT
19N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AT 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
85W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE SW COAST OF CUBA N
OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...E OF 80W...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS NOTED
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. FURTHER E...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 21N62W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
HOWEVER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION S AND W OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO E OF THE
BAHAMAS AT 27N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO S FLORIDA AT
25N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 67W-78W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N53W WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N20W TO 23N20W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N E OF 21W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA NEAR 30N23W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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