[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N11W TO
06N40W THEN RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 04N43W TO 02N50W.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 09N39W
TO 03N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SE MEXICO...A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 27N90W...AND A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.WITH THESE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
E GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N85W TO 24N84W. TO THE S...A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL THEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLANTIC.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN...PRIMARILY S OF 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THIS LOW TO 16N88W WHILE A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 23N84W. A
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 80W. TO THE
E...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ITS AXIS FROM SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED W OF THIS AXIS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
76W-83W. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN EXCEPT THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND 7-9 FT SEAS PREVAIL DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF
THE AREA. EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA TO
THE E WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT FOR
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N78W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW TO 30N72W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO
30N68W. TO THE E...A SURFACE LOW N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ITS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N65W TO 31N59W. SE OF
ALL THESE BOUNDARIES...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
27N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N79W TO THE LOW TO
27N70W TO 29N65W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY W
OF 64W. TO THE E...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
26N51W AND ITS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. N OF THIS
HIGH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N51W TO 31N40W WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION. TO THE FAR E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N22W TO 22N21W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE AND MOVE NE WITH
CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMINDER OF THE
BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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