[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO 06N14W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N14W TO
03N20W TO 05N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 10N32W TO
02N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN
13W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. JUST N ...THE TAIL END OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AT 25N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W
CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF
THE FRONTS. MODERATE NE SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N
OF FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WEAK TROUGHING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF. SLIGHT RIDGING WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 21N87W TO 18N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM
18N86W TO 15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 06N-
10N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA...N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
PANAMA. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA E
OF 70W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
24N80W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO S
FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN70W-73W. SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
22N W OF 73W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N55W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
29N60W TO 31N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 31N23W TO 25N40W TO 31N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 22N18W. EXPECT
THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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