[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N12W TO 07N14W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N14W TO
03N20W TO 05N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N33W TO
01N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN
13W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-
27N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE NE SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WEAK
TROUGHING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF. SLIGHT
RIDGING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF
TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 21N87W TO BELIZE AT 16N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 19N86W TO 15N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-86W. FURTHER S...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E
HISPANIOLA...N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS
NOTED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO PANAMA. FURTHER E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 21N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA E OF 70W. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
31N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
24N80W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N W OF 74W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN
70W-72W. SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONTS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
30N55W TO 29N60W TO 31N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 30N120W. EXPECT WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FOR THE REINFORCING COLD
FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY...THEN PROCEED E TO 31N66W
WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES N OF THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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