[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N14W TO
07N29W...THEN RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 06N33W AND
CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N E OF 28W. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 04N32W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED OVER SW NEW YORK EXTENDS A
TROUGH S ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE COAST OF N CAROLINA SW TO A LOW NE OF JACKSONVILLE AND
TAIL REACHING NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. IT ALSO PARTIALLY SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
18N91W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT CONVERGING WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM
THE CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN SW WIND FLOW IN THE GULF
AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 89W AND WITHIN 30 NM
OFF WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH
CENTERS N OF THE AREA AND A THIRD HIGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. CIRA
LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
AND CLEAR SKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
THE RIDGE SUPPORT NE WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 200 NM N OF
THE FRONT AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
NORTHERLIES OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE REMAINDER WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY EARLY TUE AND NE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING
THAT TIME RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN BEING
ANCHORED BY A NEWLY FORMED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONT STALLS
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW NEAR 22N85W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN SW WIND FLOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALSO
SUPPORT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG CUBA. ANOTHER
DIFFLUENCE REGION IS BEING GENERATED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW N BASIN
SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY
TUE AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW NE OF
JACKSONVILLE TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. TO THE SE...A
SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 33N57W
SW TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W
OF A LINE FROM 30N68W TO 20N75W. FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE TO 32N52W WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ENTERING THE N CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N48W AND CONTINUING
ESE ALONG 26N36W TO 29N25W...NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
FINALLY...OVER THE NE ATLC A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REFLECTS AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N21W TO 24N22W. THE WESTERN
MOST STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT AND WILL
MERGE WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC
WATERS. THIS NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE REGION
THROUGH WED WITH CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
ADJACENT WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NR
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