[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N00W TO 03N06W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N06W TO
03N20W TO 04N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N27W TO
02N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-
09N BETWEEN 10W-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W
TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT 21N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 26N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF FRONT
...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE WINDS ARE INCREASING
TO 20-30 KT DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
FRONT TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTION...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DRIFTS E TO THE ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-85W DUE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
FROM 16N89W TO 16N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-
19N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA...N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-
70W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA...
BELIZE...N GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHILE STRONG TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS. TO THE
E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
21N66W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
SURFACE WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA E
OF 70W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 29N70W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 23N
BETWEEN 74W-80W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
OF THE LOW TO 30N54W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
31N25W TO 26N30W TO 26N40W TO 28N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
22N18W. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LINGER IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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