[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N00W TO 03N09W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N09W TO
03N27W TO 04N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N30W TO
02N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-
09N BETWEEN 13W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W
TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT 21N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 84W-87W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH
FAIR WEATHER. A MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN N OF FRONT AS NOTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXCEPT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20-30 KT DUE TO
A LOCALIZED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL
FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO PERSIST...
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TO THE ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N88W TO
16N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
84W-88W. TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
82W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
STRONG TO FRESH TRADEWINDS PREVAIL E OF 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. A SIMILAR SURFACE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY EASTERLY
FLOW ENCOUNTERING OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 27N40W TO 27N54W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
32N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO A 1019 MB
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28N73W WHERE IT THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN REACHING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE BOUNDARIES W OF 60W...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARIES E OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
32N21W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTS A LAGGING SURFACE
TROUGH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE UPPER FEATURE N OF 15N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO MAINLY MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THIS OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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