[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N08W TO
05N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N30W TO 04N32W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES W OF THIS TROUGH FROM 05N34W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W-26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND S OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
AND EXTENDING S COVERING THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 25N WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS PREVAIL S OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
FRONT TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W AFFECTING W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. TO THE E...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NE CARIBBEAN
WITH BASE NEAR 15N63W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA EXCEPT BETWEEN 70W-80W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
PREVAIL. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
HISPANIOLA MAINLY E OF 70W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT MAINLY W OF 70W. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT ENTERED OUR AREA
OF DISCUSSION FROM 28N49W TO 26N34W TO 31N25W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N43W. ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N21W TO 23N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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