[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO 23N94W
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE S OF 21N W OF
THE FRONT AT 03/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
06N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N15W TO 05N20W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TROUGHING DIPPING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N84W SW TO 23N94W TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N96W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF
WATERS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
OTHERWISE...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE OCCURRING NW
OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF BY FRIDAY WITH
THE SPECIAL FEATURES GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE
PERSISTING THROUGH 04/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION NEAR 19N73W. GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF LIFTING DYNAMICS IN
PLACE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 68W-75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA.
TO THE EAST...SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING IN
THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 16N84W TO 21N86W.
MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W
OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OCCURRING.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
19N73W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
SE GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE APPROACHING FRONT IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 73W...AND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND
TRANSITION STATIONARY FROM ALONG 29N/30N TO THE NW BAHAMAS AS
STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A STRENGTHENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERALLY N OF 27N W OF 67W. FARTHER SE...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION
THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM
20N68W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND AN AREA NORTH OF THE ISLAND FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 64W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N26W SW TO 25N40W TO 26N49W BECOMING
STATIONARY AND WEAKENING TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT E OF 37W. OTHERWISE...RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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