[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO 23N94W
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 04/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
04N11W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N11W TO 04N16W TO 05N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NE CONUS
WITH TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWEST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION
NEAR 29N83W SW TO 23N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
REGION SW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF
26N E OF 85W. OTHERWISE...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE
OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PRECEDING
THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN
BY FRIDAY WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE PERSISTING THROUGH 04/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W. GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF LIFTING DYNAMICS IN PLACE...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 68W-75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TO THE WEST...SHARP UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 17N86W TO 22N84W. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AREA OF MAXIMUM
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N73W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE APPROACHING FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N77W TO
27N80W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE
SURFACE TROUGH EAST TO A LINE FROM 24N77W TO 32N70W. CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNSTABLE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE EAST-
WEST ORIENTED AND TRANSITION STATIONARY FROM ALONG 29N/30N TO
THE NW BAHAMAS AS STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERALLY N OF 27N W OF 67W.
FARTHER SE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
HISPANIOLA THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED
FROM 20N72W TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND AN AREA NORTH OF THE ISLAND FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 68W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING SIGNIFICANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE FROM 32N24W SW TO
25N40W BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING TO 26N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E
OF 35W. OTHERWISE...RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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