[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF OF
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STRONG TO GALE
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM
07N18W TO 04N35W TO 03N51W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW
REACHING NORTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM
30N85W TO 20N97W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BEHIND THIS
FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N88W TO 23N89W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN
E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION THEN STALLING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OVER HAITI CENTERED NEAR 19N73W WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA
BORDER. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF
16N BETWEEN 67W-73W. AT THE SURFACE... A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO 16N84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND E OF THIS
TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-84W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC REACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS TO MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HAITI AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN DRIER
WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED
NEAR 38N42W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY BETWEEN 76W-
80W. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO 19N66W.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION ENHANCING
CONVECTION N OF 25 AND BETWEEN 30W-56W. THE BOUNDARY ENTERS AS A
COLD FRONT FROM 31N30W TO 26N43W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
THAT POINT TO 27N56W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE FOLLOWED WITH
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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