[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES THE WESTERN
AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N14W AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLC TO
07N19W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
AND EXTENDS TO 04N30W TO 04N40W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W...AND WITHIN
70 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N92W TO A DISSIPATING 1014
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N95W TO 24N96W TO 21N97W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE MID ATLC STATES TO THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTS MAINLY
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS
TX LATE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...ENTERING THE NW GULF BY WED
AFTERNOON...AND MERGING WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. THE NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN
AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST NW OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE GULF
BASIN. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL HAVE REACHED THE SW
GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE S OF 23N W OF 96W BEHIND THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN AND
BELIZE WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N88W TO 16N88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MAIN FEATURE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N77W WITH A
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE LOW IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 20N73W TO 12N75W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE
DEEPER CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
LIKELY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N62W TO 14N64W. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS KEEPING CONVECTION OFFSET FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT NW WINDS S OF 10 N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS APPEARED TO END ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED.
THEREFORE...THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDEVELOP AT ANY TIME THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N70W TO HAITI NEAR 18N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N41W TO 29N50W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N50W TO 28N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 17N63W TO 20N62W. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS KEEPING
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER N AFRICA AND SW EUROPE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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