[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 48-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 28N83W TO
23N95W TO 19N96W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS
FROM 22N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 96W. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE
FROM 10 TO 12 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 08N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N19W TO
05N22W 04N40W AND 04N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 06N29W 04N42W 07N52W
10N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N105W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...BEYOND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W...TO A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N95W...TO 22N98W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO TO
26N101W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER...
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGVX...
KXIH...AND KGLS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...KVBS IN THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS...AND IN THE LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KEIR.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N72W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO A 17N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
COASTAL PANAMA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W
21N72W...ACROSS HAITI JUST TO THE WEST OF ITS BORDER WITH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N78W 17N80W 14N80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS
OF 14N74.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN
HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N63W 11N64W. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ALONG 22N87W 18N87W 16N85W...FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO
EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TURNS AND
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM THE TROUGH WESTWARD. A RIDGE FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN
GUATEMALA...ALONG THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER NORTHWARD...INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
CUTS RIGHT THROUGH HAITI...JUST TO THE WEST OF ITS BORDER WITH
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N74.5W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 69W AND 76W...INCLUDING IN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB CONTINUES THE FORECAST TREND OF THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...ROUGHLY PASSING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FIRST 6 TO
12 HOURS OF DAY TWO MAY EXPERIENCE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS
MODEL AT 500 MB PUTS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N79W
AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN
HONDURAS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CIRCULATION CENTER IS
FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. THAT ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
AT 700 MB BRINGS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 20N28W 14N36W AND
TO 10N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 31N51W AND 32N63W. A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO
28N24W...TO 25N44W...AND 27N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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