[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W TO 05N31W TO 07N40W AND 05N45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 06N28W 04N39W 05N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 12N105W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...BEYOND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N92W IN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO
28N92W AND 26N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AT 26N94W AND IT CONTINUES TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO TO 27N101W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER...
AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...AND KGVX
ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND KEIR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KGLS...AND IN THE LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 26N72W...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO AN 18N79W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF COASTAL PANAMA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N68W 24N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W
AND 76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A
CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO 16N72W TO 13N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 22N IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD...AND IN THE REST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N60W 15N61W 13N63W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM THE TROUGH WESTWARD. A RIDGE FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS...TO SOUTHEASTERN
GUATEMALA...ALONG THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER NORTHWARD...INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 16N72W TO 13N74W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 16N TO 22N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB CONTINUES THE FORECAST TREND OF THE
CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...ROUGHLY PASSING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FIRST 6 TO
12 HOURS OF DAY TWO MAY EXPERIENCE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS
MODEL AT 500 MB PUTS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N79W
AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN
HONDURAS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CIRCULATION CENTER IS
FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. THAT ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
AT 700 MB BRINGS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 20N28W 14N36W AND
TO 10N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 30N55W AND 29N67W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N51W 27N60W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE FRONT.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N/32N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. THE
FRONT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 31N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 45W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W TO 25N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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