[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES THE W
AFRICA COAST NEAR 090N13W REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS FROM THAT
POINT AND EXTENDS TO 06N31W TO 03N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM
22N97W TO 28N94W THEN BECOMING A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO
30N91W. S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N97W TO
19N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N78W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT W OF THE FRONT WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS...A SURGE OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NW GULF...REACHING GALE
FORCE STRENGTH BY EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N75W TO 09N82W. WITH
THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...THREE
SURFACE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE
FIRST IS LOCATED FROM 17N87W TO 16N85W. TO THE E...THE SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N82W TO 12N80W. TO THE E...THE
THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N76W TO 11N75W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO 17N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN SAN JUAN PR DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY AFFECTING NOT ONLY THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT ALSO
PORTIONS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT
BETWEEN 65W-78W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WITH THIS...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N73W TO 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THIS AXIS. TO THE
E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 29N64W TO 28N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
ALONG THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 31N37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
AFRICA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE SW ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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