[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 00N29W TO 02S45W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-
07N AND W 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N96W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N
BETWEEN 83W-93W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY
DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W.
ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. BENIGN WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO
TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND HENCE MOVE N WITH CONVECTION.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 14N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N68W TO 16N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE N...A STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO
30N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-67W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 27N43W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N24W TO
25N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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