[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 01S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NW TO 26N90W TO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR
28N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING A SLIGHT
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SE
GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT...THUS
SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE N-NE GULF DURING THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS
ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS. RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDS TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. BESIDES A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SHOWERS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE
ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE
N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN
EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W SW TO 26N73W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W
AND 71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC S OF
THE FRONT W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG
30N25W SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT OVER THE
SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING LEAVING A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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