[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 01S27W TO 04S38W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-06S BETWEEN 12W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N95W TO
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF
26N AND W OF 94W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W.
BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE
FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM
11N66W TO 15N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL.
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 31N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO
30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N23W TO
24N38W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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