[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201019
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
04N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 02S29W TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-
07S BETWEEN 23W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FRONT THE EPAC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N96W TO
30N93W SUPPORTING CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE GOES-
R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING
FOG OVER THE W GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 94W. TO THE S...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 24N89W TO
19N91W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AT
THIS MOMENT. A WEAK E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. THE FOG OVER THE W GULF WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE PAIRED WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT
TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF
COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER
REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N79W TO
31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N AND W OF 74W.
TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. IT IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N69W TO 27N64W. FROM
THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING TO 31N50W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-52W. A BROAD
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N26W EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BUT
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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