[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N30W TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-
05S BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FRONT THE EPAC MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING CONVECTION N OF 27N AND W OF 89W.
THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE
DEPICTING FOG OVER THE W GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. TO THE
E...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 84W. TO THE S...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 21N88W TO
18N92W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AT
THIS MOMENT. A WEAK E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SQUALL LINE E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TO ENTER
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. THE FOG OVER THE W GULF WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE E GULF
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PAIRED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE
AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N
BETWEEN 66W-77W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND REACHING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N81W TO 33N79W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N AND W OF 76W. TO THE
E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N70W TO 31N55W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-
53W. A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N29W EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC BUT CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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