[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N12W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO 00N38W TO THE N COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO
04N BETWEEN 21W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE N GULF NEAR 29N92W TO 27N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO 27N90W
TO 25N95W. A DISORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REACH THE W FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER TROUGH VOID OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM
24N91W TO 19N92W. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N93W TO 25N98W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
GULF...FROM S TEXAS/N MEXICO TO CENTRAL FL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS
SW TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES DOMINATE THE BASIN. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SE US IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF FL FROM 26N TO 31N W
OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N45W TO 28N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 31N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 39N26W HAS AN AXIS THAT
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO ANOTHER HIGH OF 1020 MB
NEAR 23N48W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION FROM THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 5N AND S OF 32N

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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