[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 05N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 07N W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N. CONVECTION ON THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO
26N95W TO 21N97W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A HIGH NW OF VERMONT AND ANOTHER HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC
EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE
WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT. SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE
TROUGHING AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF A SHORT-WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO
JACKSONVILLE WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-SE ALONG 30N72W
TO 31N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THREE SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALL LACKING CONVECTION. THE
FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 24N59W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 29N44W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W TO
21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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