[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N16W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA WITH NEAR ZONAL W-SW FLOW OVER THE
NE GULF. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF
WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC TO OVER THE NE FLORIDA AND A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CAPE CANAVERAL TO
TAMPA BAY INTO THE GULF TO 24N76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW GULF 27N87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. A THIRD WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF
EXTENDING ALONG 94W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-92W AND WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO FREEPORT TEXAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND THEN WILL
SHIFT W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THEN MOVE NW ACROSS
SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA
TO PANAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAITI...AND JAMAICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER HAITI. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ENHANCING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY FRI. THE
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN SHIFT E TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 16/1500 UTC ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W ALONG
30N62W TO 30N7W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1018 MB LOW
NEAR 32N77W. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N79W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF FLORIDA. A MID LEVEL LOW IS NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 24N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N57W ALONG 24N60W TO 21N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SE OF THE
FRONT AND IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N66W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE E
ATLC NEAR 24N44W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N55W
ALONG 28N65W TO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
DRIFTING N OUT OF AREA EARLY SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E AND WEAKEN MORE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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