[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT.
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA.
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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