[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-19W...AND FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO 23N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT 19N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 21N. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW TO COVER THE GULF WITH
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF TO INCLUDE
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO
28N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N70W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 40W-60W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC
TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE E OF THE
FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-40W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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