[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THAT POINT SW TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF
24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR
41N51W EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA SW
TO LOUISIANA TO TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN
CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO
29N W OF 91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS WHILE FOG IS REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 88W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN PROVIDES
STABILITY...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE SW
BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT BETWEEN 64W AND 81W...INCREASING UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN
PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED
BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER ISLAND
IS BEING FAVORED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER AS
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N50W TO 29N58W TO
29N69W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W
AND 62W. ON THE NE ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
30N12W SW TO 22N23W TO 22N31W...TRANSITIONING THEN INTO A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF
THE FRONT TAIL ALONG 29N37W TO 25N38W. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WED MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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