[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW
TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THAT POINT SW TO 01S31W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
04S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 230 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR
38N57W EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA SW
TO TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 27N W OF
91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF...WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE NW CUBA COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN PROVIDES STABILITY...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE SW
BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20
TO 25 KT BETWEEN 64W AND 80W...INCREASING TO 30 KT ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED OVER SW CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND ON THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT
CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER ISLAND
IS BEING FAVORED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER AS DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR DOMINATES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N52W TO 29N56W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N70W. TWO
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE JUST S OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE FIRST
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 25N68W. FARTHER EAST THE SECOND
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN
54W AND 63W. ON THE NE ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 30N16W SW TO 22N27W TO 24N32W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. THE FRONT
OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WED MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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