[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 132331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
00N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40N. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 28N AND E OF
90W WITH A SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 28N89W. UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS BRINGING
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 92W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW
IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN.
WITH THIS...THE AREA REMAINS DRY AND STABLE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF
14N BETWEEN 70W-72W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND MAINLY DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY WILL BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W
ATLANTIC THAT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 30N58W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT
INTO THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES N OF 27N AND W OF
57W. S OF THESE FEATURES...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS PREVAIL....
THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO 26N69W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS
FROM 28N59W TO 25N60W. TO THE E...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N47W. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW N
OF OUR AREA AFFECTING THE E ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N38W TO 24N26W THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO 31N15W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED
TO THESE BOUNDARIES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO BECOME
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONTS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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