[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINS WEST OF
THE BASIN...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE ANALYZED FROM LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 28N92W TO 25N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 21N97W. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH S-SE
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  WHEN A FRONTAL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN HOWEVER REMAINS NORTH
OF THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FLOW REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE COAST OF
WESTERN PANAMA AND EASTERN COSTA RICA WHERE CLOUDINESS IS
ENHANCED WITHIN A MAXIMUM AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY CONFLUENT FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. GIVEN INCREASED
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W. THE FRONT CONTINUES W-SW TO 30N63W
AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 75W-
80W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS IMPACTED
BY A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WHICH ARE ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE. THE FIRST IS FROM 22N62W TO 28N59W...AND THE SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 23N71W TO 28N67W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE N OF 24N BETWEEN 55W-69W TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N47W. HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N19W THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N16W TO
28N20W TO 25N30W TO 28N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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