[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W SW
TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 03N BETWEEN 07W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR
42N51W EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
EASTERN GULF...PROVIDING SE SURFACE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE BASIN...A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
EXTREME NW GULF NEAR 29N96W TO 27N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRECEEDS THE FRONT BY ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SE OF THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN
90W AND THE S TEXAS COAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
26N91W TO 18N95W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE NW AND IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC SUPPORTS GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LOCALIZED WINDS UP
TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COASTS OF HONDURAS AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE ARE OCCURRING
MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 80W INCLUDING
JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN
TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 30N65W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 21N48W TO 29N60W TO 29N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 61W. FARTHER
EAST...A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR
29N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N38W TO 24N35W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND EXTENDS FROM
31N12W TO 26N17W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF
THE E US COAST WEDNESDAY NEAR 30N WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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