[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N15W TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 8W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
WITHIN 75 NM LINE FROM 3N14W TO LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THEN MEANDERS
ALONG 29N90W TO 27N96W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-92W AND N OF 23N
W OF 92W. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT N TODAY AND INLAND BY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N E OF 67W
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
S NICARAGUA AND W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MONRING.
HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND INTO THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N72W TO 32N77W
WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT W ACROSS SE GEORGIA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N W OF 70W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-
31N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
27N64W TO 21N68W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ARE FROM 23N-
27N BETWEEN 55W-58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W ALONG 30N39W
THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT E THROUGH TUE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC DRAG E ALONG ABOUT 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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