[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
02N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
10W...AND FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A FEW
AREAS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THE PARENT TROUGH TO THIS ENERGY IS NOTED TO THE WEST
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ARE ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM THE COAST INLAND ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ALONG 31N TO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH S-SE RETURN
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NICARAGUA NEAR. THE MAJORITY OF
THIS FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT WITH SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 62W-68W...AND ACROSS COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA WHERE CLOUDINESS IS ENHANCED WITHIN A MAXIMUM
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. GIVEN INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W. THE FRONT CONTINUES W-SW TO 31N75W
AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N47W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W. FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE...A PAIR
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ON THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE FIRST IS FROM 23N59W TO 27N57W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 55W-59W...AND
THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 22N68W TO 26N65W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W. HOWEVER...A
VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N23W THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N23W TO 30N33W. THE FRONT CONTINUES WESTWARD GENERALLY
STATIONARY ALONG 30N TO 31N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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