[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W ALONG 4N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS THEN CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF LIBERIA BETWEEN 8W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 1N-4N BETWEEN 6W-11W AND FROM
2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 1N-3N W OF 48W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OVER THE NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
THEN MEANDERS ALONG 29N87W 28N95W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER S
TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N
BETWEEN 88W-94W AND N OF 23N W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF
THE AREA BY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOPED OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
S NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MID
WEEK. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND
ARE WINDING DOWN TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING W OF 70W. THE PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WELL N OF THE AREA WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SE GEORGIA JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS WITH THE ONE ALONG 56W FROM
21N-26W AND THE SECOND ALONG 65W FROM 20N-27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGHS FROM 22N-
26N BETWEEN 59W-63W. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT E ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO
THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS
ON SUN THEN STALL FROM 32N58W ALONG 29N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS
EARLY MON WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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