[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W ALONG 5N20W TO 2N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS THEN
CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 28W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 5W-14W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W
OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ TO ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS MOBILE
ALABAMA THEN CLIPS THE SE PORTION OF LOUISIANA BEFORE CONTINUING
ALONG 28N94W TO 27N96W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN INLAND
OVER S TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N93W TO 23N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM
SE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT
EAST.  THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND STALL ALONG 29N/30N THIS
EVENING THEN DRIFT INLAND AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS AREA W OF 75W.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THIS ISLAND. THE PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ACROSS THE W ATLC AND
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S FLORIDA TO
BEYOND 32N73W GIVING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE SE COAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
E OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N24W 29N36W
THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W THEN ALONG 30N65W TO FLORIDA
NEAR 30N81W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH
TODAY ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE W ATLC THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DRAG E ACROSS THE REMAINING
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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