[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W ALONG 6N19W 4N25W TO 2N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS S OF THE
EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ TO ACROSS NE FLORIDA ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS THE GULF
JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ALONG 28N95W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N93W TO 21N96W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE LIFT OF THE
FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO OVER LOUISIANA BETWEEN 89W-93W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO. A 1019 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS AREA W OF 74W.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN OVER CUBA AND
ARE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE S
COAST BETWEEN 78W-82W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA BORDERS.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS
THE W AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WITH A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER REMAIN OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE W ATLC AND
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD GIVING THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE SE COAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029
MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG
32N32W 30N60W TO 29N80W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY RETREAT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK INTO THE
W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL DRAG E ACROSS THE REMAINING NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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