[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102319
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND OVER A 1004 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 14N16W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N19W TO
04N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01S20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BASIN...MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-97W. S OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM A
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. OVER
THE W GULF...SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N94W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING E OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 24N BETWEEN 92W-
94W. SLIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF
BASIN EXCEPT W OF 93W WHERE A LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE ACROSS THE N GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. TO THE E OF THIS
FEATURE...UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS RELATED TO A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-76W. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY 2
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE LOCATED NEAR 31N66W AND THE
SECOND ONE NEAR 35N27W. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A
COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE CONUS COAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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